As we chorus in the grandest stage of international football, Ryan Liberty gives his take on the Golden Boot markets and contenders to pick out a winner for the coveted prize in Qatar.
The 2022 edition of the FIFA World Cup takes place in November – which already means this will be a tournament like no other. It’s a winter experience for the first time in certainly my lifetime, but I doubt this has much of an effect on the best players in the world.
Of course, the intention of all these players is see their side garner true success, but at least some part of their heart would certainly be set on winning this honour. So, what are the key ingredients to claiming such a prize you ask? Well, for me it’s a combination between ability and playing for a side who are likely to get deep enough in the tournament to remain competitive.
In recent tournaments the magic number seems to be six goals – Harry Kane scored exactly six as England made the semi-finals in 2018 but the English striker was still able to bag the award.
The Contenders:
Karim Benzema 12/1
Karim Benzema has just been named the 2022 Ballon d’Or winner, and at 12/1 he offers immense value. Benzema finished his domestic season for Real Madrid with an impressive 44 goals with 15 assists in all competition. He is often outshone by Kylian Mbappe when you talk about French goals, but as I suspect he might be played through the middle – he might be a shrewd bet.
Benzema had a decent Euro 2020 for Les Bleus, and he has scored in as many appearances for his country since reclaiming his spot in the national setup. France is in Group D along with the likes of Australia, Tunisia, and Denmark. A group hardly fraught with hardship for a side like France and their firepower upfront…
Their path through to the final – assuming they top the group – does not appear to have too many pitfalls until the final four stage. I think Benzema will enjoy plenty opportunities this tournament and given the sort of confidence he is likely to have I think he should be a serious consideration.
Neymar 14/1
Brazil finds themselves as heavy favourites to win the World Cup once again – but in other news, water is shown to be wet! It is never a surprise to see the South American giants as favourites and it just seems as though they are flying under the radar going into this edition.
There is certainly value to find in Neymar being the top goal scorer for the tournament, his ability and talent aside, he seems to have matured for Brazil and embraced the pressure which comes with wearing his nations emblem on his chest.
Assuming he remains injury free this campaign he is likely to play every minute of Brazil’s tournament and his adaptability to playing across the frontline adds to his danger. He could play anywhere for the Brazilian starting XI and I don’t think it affects his expected goalscoring statistic.
Brazil is another side who should finish at the summit of Group G, which might set them up against Uruguay in the Round of 16…the last time they played each other Neymar contributed extensively to the Brazilian 4-1 victory early this year.
He wouldn’t be my out and out frontrunner though, considering most of his scoring might come during the group stages, but his talent and ability is undoubted and will be supported by an incredibly talented group of players.
Kylian Mbappe 9/1
At just 23 years old, I wouldn’t fault you if you thought Mbappe was a stalwart in world football! I mean, the guy has a contract which extends way past the playing field and includes managerial elements!
Anyway, I digress. The young star has been fantastic again this year, he’s scored 28 goals domestically for PSG and it would be remiss of us to not assume this sort of form will extend to the French national side and their quest to defend their title.
Mbappe was immense in 2018, he scored four goals for his national side and walked away with a winner’s medal and a young players award – he will certainly look to add to this cause when FIFA’s showpiece event kicks off in Qatar this weekend.
To be honest, he isn’t one of my favoured picks and certainly not someone I would empty the bank account on. However, his talent and ability justify an inclusion in the conversation, and should France look to compete, well Mbappe and Benzema will fight that out!
Notable mentions:
Harry Kane 7/1
Lionel Messi 12/1
Cristiano Ronaldo 16/1
Memphis Depay 25/1
Vinicius Jnr 33/1
Lautaro Martinez 33/1
Prediction: Neymar (14/1)
If I’m completely honest, Sadio Mane was my first pick for this award this year! We don’t often acknowledge teams (or players) outside of the main sort of collection – but Senegal have a serious team and Mane would have been the talisman there.
Nevertheless, unfortunately the Bayern man has had to miss out due to injury and so Neymar has now picked up my vote. He’s played recently as though he has a new lease on life and when it comes to national tournaments, he absolutely turns it on.
At 14/1 he might be a sneaky option.
Ryan Liberty
@Mr_R_Liberty