Nigeria begin their 2027 Africa Cup of Nations qualifying campaign on Friday when they host Madagascar at the Godswill Akpabio International Stadium in Uyo.

The Super Eagles enter the fixture under head coach Éric Chelle, with qualification an immediate priority. Nigeria will be without Victor Osimhen, however, after the Galatasaray striker was ruled out with a muscle injury. His absence removes a major source of goals, but Chelle still has considerable attacking quality available, including Ademola Lookman, Samuel Chukwueze, Moses Simon and Akor Adams.

Madagascar should not be underestimated. The Barea have made significant progress in recent years and reached the CHAN final. They also have a memorable result against Nigeria, defeating the Super Eagles 2–0 at the 2019 AFCON.

Nevertheless, Nigeria have the stronger squad and will have home advantage in Uyo. The Super Eagles have also won three of the five previous meetings between the nations, compared with one Madagascar victory and one draw.

The betting market heavily favours Nigeria, with the hosts priced around 1/6 for victory. However, Osimhen’s absence could make a comfortable victory less straightforward, while Madagascar’s recent competitive performances suggest they can remain difficult to break down.

With Nigeria expected to control possession and create the majority of the chances, I expect the hosts to secure all three points. Rather than backing a potentially short-priced outright win, the winning-margin market provides greater value.

For our Bet of the Day, we tip Nigeria TO WIN at 2/11.