The race for automatic qualification to the 2026 FIFA World Cup from Group C has gone down to the final matchday, with South Africa’s chances suffering a major blow after they were held to a frustrating 0-0 draw by 10-man Zimbabwe in Durban.
This result means Bafana Bafana’s dream of direct qualification now hangs by a thread, contingent not only on their performance but also on a favourable result from a classic derby involving their biggest rivals, Nigeria.
Read: Bafana Bafana Held by 10-Man Zimbabwe
The crucial shift occurred when Benin triumphed 1-0 over Rwanda in Kigali thanks to a dramatic late winner. Aiyegun Tosin tucked the ball into an empty net with nine minutes remaining, following great work from Steve Mounie and Romaric Amoussou. This victory gave Benin a two-point lead heading into the final round.
The Path to Automatic Qualification
In the African qualifiers, only the group winner is assured a spot at the finals in Canada, Mexico, and the United States. For Bafana Bafana (15 points), the scenario for automatic qualification is clear but precarious:
Bafana Bafana MUST WIN their home game against Rwanda on Tuesday, taking them to 18 points. Nigeria MUST DEFEAT Benin in their simultaneous showdown in Uyo.
The Nigerian Factor
Nigeria (14 points) hosts Benin (17 points) in the final round of games on Tuesday evening.
If Nigeria wins by a two-goal margin or more, they will leapfrog Benin into first place, simultaneously denting Benin’s goal difference. With a win against Rwanda, South Africa would then finish first.
If Nigeria wins by a one-goal margin, the group could still be decided on goal difference between all three top teams, making the scenario even more complex, though a two-goal margin is the safest bet for South Africa’s hopes.
If the Nigeria-Benin game ends in a draw, South Africa could only qualify by winning against Rwanda by three goals or more, as Benin’s GD of +5 is currently superior to Bafana’s +3.
The fact that all crucial games are kicking off at the same time is a deliberate measure by CAF to ensure fair play in this high-stakes finale.
The four best second-placed sides in the CAF qualifiers will get a second chance via continental and inter-confederation play-offs.
That being said, the tight nature of Group C means the runner-up may not amass enough points to be one of the four best second-placed teams, making the automatic qualification spot highly coveted.