Commodore's EPL Picks




Greetings folks, it’s been a while. Midweek fixtures and FA Cup matches are starting to wreak havoc on the fixture list and this week is no different. There’s only six Premier League matches to choose from, and nothing that really gets the blood pumping. It’s in stark contrast to the weekend just gone, where drama reached new heights, with red cards, missed penalties and yet another win for Leicester City. The Foxes are edging closer to a historic title and it’s difficult to see any of the chasing pack stopping them. Certainly not Arsenal or Manchester City. It’s been a strange old season and it looks set to take a turn for the weirder this weekend.

Saturday 12 March

17/4 Norwich | Draw 3/1 | Man City 6/10 (14:45)

What could be more extraordinary than Norwich pulling out a victory against Manchester City this weekend? The Canaries have been well and truly pulled into the relegation dogfight after defeat to fellow strugglers Swansea. They really should stand no chance against the might of City, who swept aside Villa with consummate ease over the weekend. And yet, I get the feeling that this could just be one of those results that makes no decent sense to anyone. It’s nothing more than a whim, but I think Norwich can get something here. Something has to change for them, so why not this weekend? City have other things to worry about and aren’t the best on the road. Norwich are 12/10 to get any sort of a result here, or you could throw caution to the wind and back them to win at 17/4. Now that would be a great way to start the weekend.

9/10 Bournemouth | 23/10 | Swansea 32/10 (17:00)

Bournemouth and Swansea both find themselves in relative safety heading into this weekend’s meeting at Dean Court. For Bournemouth, the smallest club in the league, it is a monumental achievement to find themselves in that position with less than 10 games remaining in the season. Victory on Saturday will lift them to 38 points, which is likely to be enough to secure their place next season and a slice of the huge television deal. Swansea are in a slightly more precarious position, but back-to-back victories over Arsenal and Norwich has seen the confidence flood back into the Welsh outfit. Defensively, they have shown great improvements since the appointment of Francesco Guidolin. The two sides played out an entertaining 2-2 draw earlier this season and if you offered them a repeat on Saturday, I’m sure both would be happy with the point. It looks the most likely outcome, and at 23/10, it looks a decent punt.

33/20 Stoke City | 21/10 | Southampton 7/4 (17:00)

Two of the Premier League’s perennial mid-table finishers meet at the Britannia this weekend, with Stoke playing host to Southampton. It’s been a relatively successful season for Mark Hughes’ side, who have transformed their playing style and won over some fans. I’m not convinced. They registered just 31 goals in 29 league games – comfortably the lowest of the teams in the top half. If it weren’t for the heroics of Jack Butland, they would be closer to the relegation zone than fourth spot. Fortunately for them, the English goalkeeper has been in fine form, as he was against Chelsea at the weekend. Southampton have a fine English ‘keeper of their own in Fraser Forster. He may have been at fault for both of the goals in the recent defeat at Bournemouth, but he remains one of the finest in the league. All this points to a low-scoring affair, with the Under 2.5 Goals on offer at 6/10. Perhaps one for the multiples.


Sunday 13 March

11/2 Aston Villa | 32/10 | Tottenham 5/10 (18:00)

Spurs missed a great chance to close the gap at the top this past week, dropping four points in matches against West Ham and Arsenal. They won’t make the same mistake at Villa Park on Sunday, you can be sure about that. Villa are long gone, there’s no saving them now. I made money on backing Manchester City to win by three or more last week. The sad thing is they’d probably have taken 4-0 before the game. This here is my banker bet of the weekend and must be included in all multiples, however, there must be greater value to be found. Spurs have won 11 of 13 matches against the bottom eight clubs in the table. They’ve put big scores on Sunderland, Norwich and Bournemouth. Villa are worse than all those sides. Get them to Win by Three Or More Goals at 34/10, with Harry Kane to fill his boots.

Monday 14 March

6/10 Leicester | 3/1 | Newcastle 9/2 (22:00)

We close off the week at the King Power Stadium, with Leicester City hosting Newcastle. Steve McLaren was clinging to his job at the time of writing, but all might’ve changed by Sunday. I still can’t see who Newcastle might get in to save their sorry season. This bunch of mercenaries are heading to the Championship. And there’s no chance in hell of them getting a result against Leicester on Monday. The two sides are incomparable. There really is no need for a thorough analysis of this match. Just back Leicester at 6/10 and watch the money come rolling in. Double it into Spurs and you get 14/10. You’re not going to find a better bet all weekend.


Written by Commodore Vegas
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EPL Picks
Norwich WIN 17/4
Bournemouth DRAW 23/10
Stoke UNDER 2.5 GOALS 6/10
Tottenham WIN BY 3 OR MORE 34/10
Leicester WIN 6/10