Commodore's EPL Picks

What happens in the Premier League immediately after an international break is anyone’s guess. Unfortunately, mine were mostly wrong. Similarly, a midweek of European action can have a major influence over the weekend’s results. Bear this in mind before lumping your money on your fancied side this weekend. Trips to far-off lands and Thursday night matches all have their effects on a teams chances. However, I wouldn’t suggest reading too much into the actual results. Bayern Munich provide a very different proposition to Everton but if you didn’t already know that, you shouldn’t really be punting. Enough small talk, let’s get into it.

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Saturday 24th October

19/10 Aston Villa | Draw 21/10 | Swansea City 14/10 (16:00)

Swansea really let me down on Monday night. Gary Monk’s side have gone strangely off the boil since their promising start to the season. A trip to Villa Park on Saturday gives them the chance to turn things around. Tim Sherwood’s side effectively committed footballing suicide against Chelsea, gifting them the first goal before a deflection sealed their fate. Things just aren’t going their way. Their back four is about as stable as the middle east, while most of their 13 off-season recruits aren’t up to standards. However, Villa will find a way to lose this game. Back the Swans at 14/10. Sherwood’s time is up.

11/10 Leicester City | 24/10 | Crystal Palace 22/10 (16:00)

Just how in the hell do Leicester keep doing it? They came from two goals down for the third time this season to grab a draw at Southampton over the weekend, with Jamie Vardy bagging a brace. In future, if the Foxes fall two goals behind, fire in-running and enjoy your profits. It’s almost as if they like the challenge. It’s Crystal Palace at home for them this weekend, a side that did the double over them last season. Alan Pardew’s side let themselves down against West Ham on Saturday, with Dwight Gayle’s needless red card proving their undoing. This one should provide goals, with Both Teams to Score tipped at 13/20.

9/10 Norwich | 24/10 | West Brom 3/1 (16:00)

Norwich are yet to keep a clean sheet this season. Watching their performance on Sunday, it’s easy to see why. To concede six goals against Newcastle takes some doing. They did score two decent goals of their own, but Alex Neil needs to find a way to shore up their defence. In contrast, West Brom kept their fifth clean sheet of the season against Sunderland. Typical Tony Pulis stuff. Three of those have come on the road, having already picked up 1-0 wins at Stoke and Villa Park. Norwich have been made odds-on favourites here, but I just don’t see it. They’ve won just once at home, against fellow promoted side Bournemouth. I’m taking the away win at a generous 3/1, with the 1-0 correct score on offer at 17/2.

11/10 Stoke | 22/10 | Watford 5/2 (16:00)

Just over a month ago Stoke found themselves propping up the Premier League table after going six matches without a win. However, three consecutive victories has seen them jump to 11th in the table. Monday’s victory at the Liberty may have been scrappy, but that won’t bother manager Mark Hughes none. Points are all that matter. They’ll be looking to pick up three more when they host Watford at the Britannia on Saturday. The Hornets simply ran out of puff against Arsenal, leaking three second half goals. Stoke may have only won once at home this season, but the feeling is they’re coming good. The 11/10 on offer for a home win seems like a decent bet, perhaps one for the multiples.

27/10 West Ham | 26/10 | Chelsea 9/10 (16:00)

Jose Mourinho finally opted for common sense over loyalty, dropping Eden Hazard and Branislav Ivanovic for the Chelsea’s match against Aston Villa. He was rewarded with an improved showing and a 2-0 victory, albeit in slightly fortuitous circumstances. This weekend they make the trip west to Upton Park to face an in-form Hammers outfit. Slaven Bilic’s side outplayed Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park, but their home form has been far less inspiring. A solitary victory over Newcastle is all they have to show for their efforts on their own patch. The Blues have dominated this fixture in recent years, doing the double over the East London club last season. Chelsea may have had their struggles, but they always pull out a performance against West Ham. Back the away win at 9/10 – another worthy of a weekend multiple.

4/10 Arsenal | 37/10 | Everton 57/10 (18:30)

Just how good are Arsenal at present? A couple weeks back people were writing them off, but now they’re considered title challengers. The truth is they probably lie somewhere in between. Saturday’s home match with Everton will shed more light on the matter. The Toffees were my biggest disappointment over the weekend. I talked up their chances against United, and in the end got badly burned. I won’t make the same mistake. Roberto Martinez’s side remain too inconsistent to stay with the real big clubs. Arsenal should get the job done here, although 4/10 seems a bit short for my liking. Wait and fire in-running.

Sunday 25th October

29/20 Sunderland | 23/10 | Newcastle 18/10 (14:00)

I’ve never liked the Tyne-Weir Derby. Sure, there was a brief period when watching Paulo di Canio’s histrionics on the touchline was mildly enjoyable, but that’s as good as it gets. Generally speaking, it’s a poor football match involving a bunch of Geordies kicking chunks out of each other. Not my opinion of a good time. Sunderland have won the last five meetings between the two sides, quite a record given just how terrible a football side they are. Newcastle will be confident after picking up their first win of the season in style, but one gets the impression they used all their goals against Norwich. They probably should’ve rationed them out a bit. The Black Cats may not be in the best of ways, but they always lift themselves for this one. You can get them at 29/20 – worth a dabble I reckon.

21/10 Bournemouth | 24/10 | Tottenham 12/10 (16:05)

Bournemouth are in all sorts of trouble. Ravaged by injuries, Eddie Howe’s side are heading in one direction. Things don’t get any easier, with an in-form Spurs coming to town this week. Tottenham will feel aggrieved not to have picked up the three points against Liverpool, with Simon Mignolet pulling off a number of fine saves to keep the game scoreless. It will be interesting to see how Mauricio Pochettino approaches this week’s Europa League match against Anderlecht. The Argentinian has managed his squad well so far this season, although recent injuries to Eric Dier and Nacer Chadli have thinned his resources a bit. However, 12/10 for an away win seems lengthy, especially given the Cherries recent troubles.

15/10 Man United | 24/10 | Man City 31/20 (16:05)

A few seasons back, it was unthinkable that Man City would compete without Sergio Aguero, David Silva, Vincent Kompany and Yaya Toure. On Saturday, for 45 minutes they not only survived, but thrived. Manuel Pellegrini’s revolution continues to gather pace, with Raheem Sterling and Kevin de Bruyne breathing fresh life into the Citizens side. On Sunday, they’ll face a Manchester United side in a transition of it’s own. Louis van Gaal’s side responded from their humbling at the hands of Arsenal to brush Everton aside at the weekend. Ander Herrera played a starring role, but somehow remains on the periphery of Van Gaal’s side. This one could go either way, with team selection likely to play a big role in the outcome. Either way, we should be treated to a few goals, with over 2.5 goals the way to go at 8/10.

9/10 Liverpool | 5/2 | Southampton 29/10 (18:15)

The final match of the weekend sees Jurgen Klopp take charge of his first home Premier League match. The German was dealt a major blow prior to the Spurs match with Daniel Sturridge being ruled out once again. Divock Origi led the line in his absence. To call him an unfinished product would be generous. One positive from that outing was the Reds high intensity start. However, the early enthusiasm quickly wore off and after a Thursday night clash with Rubin Kazan, it will be interesting to see just how high the press is on Sunday. The midweek exertions will have an impact, with the Saints tipped to pick up a win at 29/10.

Written by Commodore Vegas
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EPL Picks
Swansea WIN 14/10
Leicester BTTS 13/20
West Brom WIN 3/1
Stoke WIN 11/10
Chelsea WIN 9/10
Arsenal WIN 4/10
Sunderland WIN 29/20
Tottenham WIN 12/10
Man United OVER 2.5 GOALS 8/10
Southampton WIN 29/10