Commodore's EPL Picks

Another week, another bad beat to add to the catalogue. That’s not to say the week wasn’t successful – I enjoyed an 80% strike rate with my Euro predictions. However, things could’ve been so much better. Were it not for those pesky Russians, I would’ve been a rich man courtesy of an 11-leg multiple. It was not to be, and now we must return to sanity and comfort of the Premier League.

Saturday 12th September

Everton 31/10 | Draw 5/2 | Chelsea 17/20

A blockbuster weekend kicks-off at Goodison Park with Everton hosting Chelsea. Of course all attention will be on John Stones, but it needn’t be. Romelu Lukaku’s winning mentality was questioned by Jose Mourinho when he opted to leave London. He’ll have a point to prove. The Blues won this fixture 6-3 last season, but they are a long way from the heights reached on the way to the title. This one will be tight, and edgy. Back the Under 2.5 Goals market at 15/20 and watch as Mourinho finds another excuse for his misfiring side.

Arsenal 1/4 | Draw 9/2 | Stoke City 97/10

Arsenal were my tip for the title. They’ve looked anything but title contenders since the season proper kicked off. Wenger’s constant dithering in the transfer market is an infuriating character flaw, and one that will be the downfall of his side. Without a 20+ goal striker,  they will not win the league. Will they beat Stoke at home? Well, they’ve failed to score in five of their last six home matches. You can’t win if you don’t score. The draw at 9/2 offers more value than a home win for me.

Crystal Palace 4/1 | Draw 3/1 | Man City 6/10

Can Crystal Palace stun the champions-elect at Selhurst Park on Saturday? I have a theory. Alan Pardew’s side, much like Aston Villa, are built to play away from home. Their pace in behind and the vision of Yohan Cabaye are a lethal combination. It’s not quite as effective in front of their home fans where they’re expected to have a go. Man City will drop points this season, and they’ll be more susceptible after the international window. I still see them doing enough and suggest you throw them into your multiples at 6/10.

Norwich 5/4 | Draw 23/10 | Bournemouth 2/1

Norwich let me down badly at Southampton. I got bullish and got burned. They’re a side that hasn’t got their just deserves for the football they’ve played this season. However, at this level, results are all that matter. They simply must pick up three points at home to Bournemouth. The Cherries have the ability to hurt the home side, especially with striker Callum Wilson in such a confident mood. Both fixtures last season saw goals, and I’m backing Both Teams to Score again at 7/10.

Watford 7/4 | Draw 22/10 | Swansea City 31/20

Swansea will put their unbeaten start to the season on the line when they face Watford at Vicarage Road on Saturday. The Swans have been a joy to watch, with Jonjo Shelvey pulling the strings from midfield, Andre Ayew and Jefferson Montero marauding down the flanks and Bafetimbi Gomis prowling up front. Wouldn’t it be just like the Premier League for them to go down against Watford? I may be tempting fate, but I can’t go against Garry Monk's side. Not in their current form. Away wins have been the flavour of the month, and I’m tipping another here at 31/20.

West Brom 2/1 | Draw 21/10 | Southampton 14/10

So I bad mouth Southampton publicly and they pull out a 3-0 victory. Such is the life of a pundit. What can we expect from them this week? Well, you just never know. They’ll head to the Hawthorns where they’ll face a West Brom side that picked up their first win of the season last time out. Record signing, Salomon Rondon, got on the scoresheet and he looks a decent player – one that could cause the Southampton defence some problems. The Baggies secured a 1-0 win in this fixture last season. A repeat of that result can be found at 7/1.

Man United 9/10 | Draw 24/10 | Liverpool 3/1

Saturday’s main event sees Manchester United host Liverpool at the Theatre of Dreams. The marque fixture of English football seems to have lost some of it’s lustre in recent times. Both teams are bit-part challengers for the title, while homegrown talent is a thing of the past, especially when you can splash £36 million on some French teenager. Sure he was good in FIFA 14, but this is the real world. That sort of money is ludicrous. Back to footballing matters, though. I’m afraid to say neither side is very good at the moment. Goals are in short supply, while both are one defensive lapse away from implosion. For once I really have no idea which way this might go. If I were to back anyone it would be United at 9/10, but I suggest caution to those that do the same.

Sunday 13th September

Sunderland 29/10 | Draw 5/2 | Tottenham 9/10

Where did all the money go at White Hart Lane? The Gareth Bale windfall was scattered around Europe, with most recruits proving complete failures. Their current first-team resembles something of a development side, with Kane, Mason, Bentaleb, Rose and Walker all having come through the system. Where did all the money go? Against Everton Moussa Dembele and Nacer Chadli patrolled the wings. Inspiring stuff that. But still, they should expect to beat Sunderland at the Stadium of Light. Expectation is something that Spurs forever seem to be grappling with. I’m going against the grain here and tipping the home win at 29/10. For added measure, Jermaine Defoe to score anytime looks a good bet at 21/10.

Leicester City 8/10 | Draw 27/10 | Aston Villa 31/10

Pre-season relegation favourites Leicester City remain in the top four after a month of the season. Throw in the deadline day capture of Gokhan Inler from Napoli and it’s clear to see this is a club going places. In contrast, Aston Villa and Tim Sherwood have invested their faith in a bunch of fickle Frenchman. They earned a draw against Sunderland last time out courtesy of a brace from Scott Sinclair, but there is still very little to like about this side. There have already been quite a bit  of away day upsets this season, but this could be the weekend when sanity prevails. Back the Foxes to triumph at 8/10.

Monday 14th September

West Ham 12/10 | Draw 24/10 | Newcastle 21/10

Monday Night Football makes a rather low-key return with the meeting of two teams formerly managed by Sam Allardyce. Both West Ham and Newcastle are trying for a more entertaining brand, with variable success. The Hammers absolutely bludgeoned Liverpool at Anfield last time out, but seem a side only capable of rising to the big occasions. This is most certainly not one of those. Meanwhile, Newcastle haven’t scored since the opening day. I have hopes this will surprise me and be an absolute ripsnorter. But I don’t punt on hope. I bet on facts. Five of the last six meetings have seen less than 2.5 goals. That’s your angle. Fire.

The less said about the final days of the transfer window the better. It’s a dark time in football, powered by greed and desperation. I’ll be putting together another crazy multiple this weekend, so keep an eye out on twitter. The profit has been steadily growing. Roll on the weekend. Sala Kahle.

Written by Commodore Vegas
Follow him on Twitter here!

EPL Picks
Everton UNDER 2.5 GOALS 15/20
Arsenal DRAW 9/2
Man City WIN 6/10
Norwich BTTS 7/10
Swansea WIN 31/20
West Brom CORRECT SCORE (1-0) 7/1
Man United WIN 9/10
Sunderland WIN 21/10
Leicester City WIN 8/10
West Ham UNDER 2.5 GOALS 9/10