Commodore's EPL Picks




The Premier League just hasn’t given the same thrills this season as it did in the last. The champions, Chelsea, have been accused of being boring. The challengers, Arsenal and the two Manchester clubs, haven’t been good enough. While Liverpool, Spurs and Southampton are the epitome of Europa League mediocrity. The season has gone as expected, and therein lies the problem. Where are the twists, the turns, the drama that makes this one of the most watchable leagues in the world? There won’t be any on the final day, unless Hull City can topple Manchester United. Otherwise it’s all a bit blasé, innit? Oh well, let’s get to it then. So for one last time – let’s find some winners.

Sunday

Arsenal 3/10 | Draw 42/10 | West Brom 8/1
West Brom did me a massive favour by rolling Chelsea on Monday night. It had been a poor weekend, but I was redeemed by Cesc Fabregas’s stupidity and a couple decent goals. On Sunday they’ll close out their season at the Emirates. The Gunners have other matters on their mind, like an upcoming FA Cup final date with Aston Villa. It has shown in their recent play, which has been laboured to put it mildly. In contrast, West Brom are unbeaten in five, including wins over Chelsea and Manchester United. I’m not sure they’ll follow suit here, but Both Teams to Score looks a decent bet at just under evens.

Aston Villa 1/1 | Draw 24/10 | Burnley 26/10
Tim Sherwood’s side secured their safety at the weekend courtesy of other results, despite suffering a humiliating 6-1 loss against Southampton. Sherwood was surprisingly cool in his post-match interview, although his expression at half-time told a different story. They will close their season with a clash against an outgoing Burnley side, who have managed two positive results since being condemned to the Championship. Like Arsenal, Villa might have one eye on the upcoming trip to Wembley, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Sherwood rest some of his key players. Take a look at the teams prior to kick-off and bet accordingly. The Burnley double chance is at 7/10 – worth a look.

Chelsea 9/20 | Draw 7/2 | Sunderland 52/10
José Mourinho was quick to blame other sides failings for Chelsea’s humbling at the hands of West Brom on Monday. He said it was difficult to lift his side now that they have nothing to play for. How about the fans that paid £50 a pop over and above travel costs to come and support? It’s not the Chelsea way I suppose. Anyway, there should be an improved performance against Sunderland this weekend. The Black Cats inflicted Mourinho’s first ever home defeat last season and there will be cause for revenge. Depending on Wednesday’s result, Sunderland could already be safe. If they are, lump on the Blues at 9/20, otherwise steer clear.

Crystal Palace 11/10 | Draw 24/10 | Swansea City 9/4
Crystal Palace are quickly becoming one of my favourite sides in the league, and Yannick Bolasie one of my favourite players. Let’s hope Liverpool don’t shell out £20 million on the back of his performance at Anfield and turn him into a wingback. Palace are a side built to counter-attack, which has often been to their detriment at home. In fact, they have the worst home record in the league – something Alan Pardew will have to fix next season. They will welcome Swansea to Selhurst Park on Sunday in what should be an entertaining match. The Swans have won their last two on the road and should give it a full go here. I’m backing Both Teams to Score at 13/20.

Everton 13/10 | Draw 5/2 | Tottenham 19/10
Everton returned to winning ways with a come from behind victory over West Ham at the weekend courtesy of Romelu Lukaku’s late header. The result has put them in a good place to secure a top-half finish, provided they can get a result against Spurs this weekend. Mauricio Pochettino’s side surprised me with their result against Hull at the weekend, but it doesn’t alter my belief that they aren’t a great side. Harry Kane looks like he’s buying into the hype surrounding him, and his performances have suffered as a result. The log might not show it, but the Toffees are easily the better side here and are good value for the win at 13/10.







Hull City 23/10 | Draw 5/2 | Man United 11/10
Hull City need to beat Manchester United on Sunday. No if’s, no but’s – fail to win and they’re down. Unfortunately for them, that is something Steve Bruce has failed to achieve in 16 previous attempts. Now is as good a time as any, ey? For United, the season is done and they’ve already turned their focus to the transfer market. The goodbyes have been said to Radamel Falcao and David de Gea, but there will be more moving on over the summer. Matches like these just aren’t worth the hassle on the final day. Hull City have no right to get a result here, but that is what makes them such a dangerous proposition. Man Utd are 11/10 for those brave enough to trust something as meaningless as form and history. 

Leicester City 11/20 | Draw 33/10 | QPR 42/10
Leicester City are safe. It’s been a massive achievement for Nigel Pearson and the Foxes, who were at the foot of the table just last month. No side has scored more points since the start of April. On Saturday they’ll host QPR, who find themselves at the foot of the table heading into the final weekend. It’s been another diabolical season for the R’s who have somehow decided to retain Chris Ramsey as manager. He has won just three of his 14 matches in charge – hardly the form to inspire confidence of a speedy return to the top flight. The Foxes have gone from strength to strength down the final stretch and should have too much for QPR here. Back’em at 11/20 and throw that into your multiples.

Manchester City 11/20 | Draw 34/10 | Southampton 42/10
It will be interesting to see what happens at Manchester City over the summer. Manuel Pellegrini looks likely to stay on in the role, but changes are afoot. Yaya Toure could well be playing his last game at the Etihad along with James Milner, while the futures of Jesus Navas, Stefan Jovetic and Edin Dzeko remain in doubt. They will close out the season against Southampton, who are still in the hunt for European qualification. Ronald Koeman has done wonders for the Saints this year and it will be interesting to see whether they can kick on in the next 12 months. As for Sunday’s match – it should see a couple goals and I’, once again back Both Teams to Score at 11/20.

Newcastle Utd 7/10 | Draw 28/10 | West Ham 34/10
Newcastle deserve to be relegated. They’ve been absolutely hopeless for the last two months of the season and if it weren’t for Alan Pardew they’d be down already. The fans got what they wanted by forcing him out of the club and now they find themselves on the verge of relegation. Good riddance I say. Unfortunately there is still hope for them yet. They need to match or better Hull’s result against Manchester United. In their current form that would prove difficult, but their opponents on Sunday have been just as poor. Big Sam’s West Ham have been terrible during the second half of the season and come into Sunday’s match without a win in any of their last 11 away matches. Back the Magpies to save themselves for another season by picking up a win at 7/10.

Stoke City 24/10 | Draw 5/2 | Liverpool 21/20
Steven Gerrard’s farewell tour comes to an inglorious end at the Britannia on Sunday as it did at Anfield this past weekend. The fanfare and sentiments failed to hide that Liverpool are a side in decline. Luis Suarez and Steven Gerrard did their best to mask the truth last season, but it has been laid bare during this campaign. Last season they came to the Britannia and swashbuckled their way to a 5-3 victory. This year we’ll be lucky to see them score a goal. Last season’s match aside, meetings between these two are normally decided by the odd goal. You can get Stoke to win 1-0 at 11/1, or you can play it safe and back under 2.5 goals at 19/20. 

So there you have it, folks. Another season done and dusted, confined to the annuls of history. It’s hardly been a vintage year but my tip of Chelsea to claim the league title has paid off in the end. Until we meet again, happy punting. Sala Kahle.

Written by Commodore Vegas
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EPL Picks
Arsenal BTTS 19/20
Burnley WIN/DRAW 7/10
Chelsea WIN 9/20
Crystal Palace BTTS 13/20
Everton WIN 13/10
Man United WIN 11/10
Leicester City WIN 11/20
Man City BTTS 11/20
Newcastle WIN 7/10
Stoke UND. 2.5 GOALS 19/20