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Commodore's EPL Picks

Any hopes there may have been of a thrilling conclusion to the Premier League season were firmly extinguished by Chelsea’s dour stalemate at the Emirates on Sunday. The Blues should lift the trophy this weekend at home to Crystal Palace. The only real excitement is set to come from the relegation battle, with Liverpool’s push for Champions League qualification stalling badly, despite some assistance from their neighbours. Writing this on a Tuesday, as I do, I need to take the midweek results out of the equation. With that in mind, let’s get started on the weekend’s matches.


Leicester City 17/20 | Draw 5/2 | Newcastle 3/1
We start at the King Power Stadium, where something special is happening. A couple weeks back the Foxes looked dead and buried, but a win on Saturday against Newcastle will move them to within a victory of safety. It shouldn’t be a difficult task. The Toon have lost their way, and are lurching perilously close to the drop. I’ve said all season their defence bears resemblance to a Championship back four, and their lack of quality up front is all too apparent. Leicester needed an element of luck to get past Burnley at the weekend, but it seems to be going for them at the moment. They’ve made me good money in recent weeks, and I’m sticking by them at 17/20 to pick up yet another win.

Aston Villa 31/20 | Draw 22/10 | Everton 31/20
Villa are another side whose safety is yet to be secured. They will finish the season with three home matches in four weeks, starting with Saturday’s visit from Everton. The Toffees have come alive in the dusk of the season, and absolutely trounced Manchester United at the weekend. It was about as good a performance as I’ve seen from Roberto Martinez’s side this season, who were clinical on the break. Villa were unlucky not to get something out of their match with Man City, after clawing their way back from a 2-0 deficit. They will be desperate to pick up something here. This one is too tough to call – I suggest you steer clear.

Liverpool 3/10 | Draw 42/10 | QPR 8/1
Liverpool head into Saturday’s match against QPR on the back of a midweek encounter with Hull City, which almost certainly resulted in defeat. While the Reds seem to have fixed the defensive frailties of last term, they’ve done so at the expense of their attack. The injury prone Daniel Sturridge has missed large chunks of the season, while his replacements simply haven’t been up to the task. Liverpool will need to spend big, and spend well if they’re to reclaim their place among Europe’s elite. Liverpool were extremely lucky to escape from Loftus Road with three points earlier this season. They won’t be so lucky at Anfield. Back QPR on the Double Chance at 18/10.

Sunderland 32/10 | Draw 22/10 | Southampton 9/10
The last time Sunderland and Southampton met, Santiago Vergini scored a world class own goal to open the scoring in an 8-0 defeat for the Black Cats. Not much has changed at the Stadium of Light in the interim. Their last home match resulted in a 4-1 defeat to Crystal Palace, which left the home supporters baying for blood. Results over the weekend saw Sunderland fall into the drop zone, and with away matches against Everton, Arsenal and Chelsea on the horizon, a result against Southampton is a must. The Saints will also be desperate for a win to keep the pressure on those above them. This is football, and anything can happen, but it’s difficult to see past a Southampton win at 9/10.

Swansea City 13/10 | Draw 21/10 | Stoke City 22/10
Swansea reached their record Premier League points with victory over Newcastle at the weekend, which was more comfortable than the 3-2 scoreline suggests. Gary Monk has done a stellar job since taking over the reins from Michael Laudrup, and has all-but secured a top half finish for the Welsh club. Their visitors on Saturday, Stoke City, come into the match one position and three points behind the Swans. Meetings between these two have generally favoured the home side, and given the Swans impressive home record – they haven’t lost to any side below them in the league – I have to favour a home win. The Swans are available at 13/10 – that’s one for the multiples.

West Ham 11/10 | Draw 23/10 | Burnley 24/10
Burnley come into their match against West Ham at the foot of the table and in need of a miracle if they’re to claw themselves back to safety. Goals have been hard to come by for Sean Dyche’s side, with their last three matches ending in a 1-0 defeat. The Hammers haven’t fared much better, and their draw with QPR means it’s just one win in their last 11 Premier League matches. They’ve also failed to score in their last two, and didn’t really trouble Rob Green at Loftus Road. This one is a prime candidate for an under bet, with under 2.5 goals available at 15/20.

Man United 7/20 | Draw 36/10 | West Brom 7/1
Manchester United aren’t yet assured of Champions League qualification. A 3-0 demolition at the hands of Everton has opened the door for the red half of Merseyside. Only a victory at home to West Brom this weekend will quell the growing concern in the terraces. In the corresponding fixture last season, West Brom picked up their first win at Old Trafford since 1978, while the Baggies also managed a 2-2 draw when the sides met at the Hawthorns earlier this season. Tony Pulis has instilled a strong defensive ethic in his side, and they should prove difficult to break down at Old Trafford. You could do worse than the 28/10 on offer for the Draw-Man Utd HT-FT double. For the more conservative among you, United are 7/20 for the win, while the unders markets are also worth a shout.


Chelsea 7/20 | Draw 37/10 | Crystal Palace 15/2
Chelsea should beat what is likely to be a weakened Leicester City side, meaning they’ll lift the title with a victory over Crystal Palace at Stamford Bridge on Sunday. Palace were well beaten by Hull City over the weekend, and seem to be running out of steam at this stage of the season. They’re still a good side, and have won five of their last six away matches, but they’re unlikely to rain on Chelsea’s parade on Sunday. Chelsea will do just enough, as they have done all season. They’re a bit short at 7/20 for the win, so I suggest you wait for them to drift and take them in-running.

Tottenham 26/10 | Draw 27/10 | Man City 9/10
Home victories over West Ham and Aston Villa may have eased the pressure on Manuel Pellegrini, but Manchester City aren’t yet in the clear. Their away form has been nothing short of diabolical of late, having lost their last four matches away from the Etihad. Such statistics will give Spurs fans renewed hope ahead of their meeting at White Hart Lane on Sunday. What is far less comforting is the fact that Spurs have conceded 15 goals in their last three meetings with the champions and were routed 4-1 earlier this season. Spurs will give this a full go, and I’m expecting goals. A home win and Both Teams to Score is available at 9/2 – that’s simply too good to pass up.


Hull City 42/10 | Draw 28/10 | Arsenal 6/10
Monday Night football will make a welcome return when Arsenal head to the KC Stadium to face a Hull City side still in the thick of the relegation scrap. A brace from Dame N’Doye lifted the gloom surrounding Steve Bruce’s side, but with matches against Spurs and Manchester United to come, they’ll be hoping to pick up at least a point from this match. A Danny Welbeck goal spared Arsenal’s blushes as the sides drew 2-2 at the Emirates earlier this season. A similar result will be monumental for Hull’s bid to avoid the drop. With Chelsea set to secure the title on Sunday, I fear the wind will be taken out of the Gunners’ sails, and I’m backing Hull on the Double Chance at 11/10.

There you have it, folks. Another weekend of Premier League action done and dusted. I’d rather turn my attentions to the La Liga title race, which looks to be going down to the wire. If there was any doubt as to the best league in the world, this season has cleared up that picture somewhat. Bring on the new season, along with Bournemouth and Watford. Can’t be any worse than Newcastle and Sunderland can they? Have a good weekend, and happy punting. Sala Kahle. 

Written by Commodore Vegas
Follow him on Twitter here!

EPL Picks
Leicester City WIN 15/20
Southampton WIN 9/10
Swansea WIN 13/10
West Ham UNDER 2.5 GOALS 15/20
Man United WIN 7/20
Chelsea WIN 7/20
Tottenham WIN + BTTS 9/2
Hull City WIN/DRAW 11/10