Commodore's EPL Picks




I just awoke to two overnight doubles and I’m feeling invigorated. The international break has been good to me for once. Unfortunately a week earlier I’d taken a bath on Liverpool to beat Manchester United. Folks, let this be a lesson to all of you. I like to think I’m a cold-blooded gambler, but I let the heart cloud matters on Sunday. That’s how things get ugly, and you get fleeced. Emotion shouldn’t come into matters of money. Apart from the outcome at Anfield, it was a good weekend for yours truly, but the hideousness of that result was inescapable. Let us put that behind us now, and get onto matters of football.

Saturday
Arsenal 8/10 | Draw 11/4 | Liverpool 31/10
As chance would have it, the weekend starts with Liverpool’s trip to the Emirates. Daniel Sturridge will play no part, while Raheem Sterling is receiving injections in his toe. These are not ideal preparations for a match of this magnitude. Lose, and their Champions League hopes are effectively extinguished. Arsenal have been moving along smoothly, with the suave Olivier Giroud finding form. History is little help here, as results between these two tend to be a lottery. Liverpool might just be running out of steam, making the 8/10 available on the home win worth a punt.

Everton 31/20 | Draw 21/10 | Southampton 7/4
Everton would’ve been hoping to be challenging for Champions League qualification at this stage of the season. As it is, they find themselves in 13th position, with not much to play for. Their opponents, by contrast, still remain in the hunt after another win and another clean sheet – this time against Burnley. However, the joy of that victory was tempered somewhat by news that goalkeeper Fraser Forster will miss the rest of the season. As for the Toffee’s, well they finally won a match, but it was against QPR, so I’m not seeing much into it. The bookies are evenly split between these two, but I fancy the Saints to get up. They’ve won the last two meetings – scoring five goals and conceding none – making the away win a value bet.

Leicester City 13/10 | Draw 23/10 | West Ham 2/1
Leicester to finish bottom. I got it at 9/2 earlier this season, and if you’d listened, you’d be awaiting a windfall at the end of the season. The Foxes are doomed. They showed some fight against Spurs, but were ultimately undone by Harry Kane. No shame in that, ey. West Ham put a run of seven matches without a win behind them with a 1-0 win over the beleaguered Black Cats. Even that was a struggle for Big Sam’s men, who seem to be looking forward to their manager’s end of season bash, for there’s nothing more for them to play for. I suggest staying away from a match like this. If you must bet, under 2.5 goals is the way to go at 19/20.

Man United 3/10 | Draw 4/1 | Aston Villa 17/2
Villa’s loss to Swansea shows just how difficult this league is to pick. They’d won 4-0 the week before, but failed to score as Bafetimbi Gomis scored a late winner to condemn them to yet another home defeat. This week they travel to Old Trafford, where hope has been renewed. It seems hasty to suggest United are once again a force, and if it weren’t for Juan Mata’s brilliance, they weren’t overly impressive in their victory at Anfield. Christian Benteke scored an absolute stonker when these teams met in December, but a Gabby Abonglahor red card and a rare Radamel Falcao goal meant things ended 1-1. I’ve looked at the betting, and there’s no value here. 3/10 for a home win is too short, while the goal markets could go either way. Steer clear.

Swansea City 17/20 | Draw 23/10 | Hull City 34/10
Hull caused all sorts of problems for Chelsea at the KC Stadium last time out. They’re a better side than their league position suggests, and I reckon they’ll be safe come the end of the season. As will Swansea, their opponents this weekend. The Swans remain a good, solid side, but nothing more than that I’m afraid. When the two sides met earlier this season, it was the Welsh side that came out on top, winning 1-0 at the KC Stadium courtesy of an early Ki Sung-yueng strike. You can back a repeat result at 17/20, with the correct score available at 5/1.

West Brom 7/10 | Draw 5/2 | QPR 39/10
QPR travel to the Hawthorns in desperate need of a win. They currently find themselves four points from safety, but it is their form that must be the biggest concern for manager Chris Ramsey. They managed just one win in their last 10 matches, while Ramsey has lost each of his four home matches to date. That is relegation form. They’ve somehow managed to score in each of their last five defeats, making for a decent matchbet. I’m backing a West Brom victory and Both Teams to Score at 3/1. I suggest you do the same.

Chelsea 1/4 | Draw 42/10 | Hull City 11/1
Chelsea continue to do just enough to stay ahead in the title race. Their victory over Hull was far from convincing, but it was a win nonetheless. They’ll be expecting another when they host Stoke at Stamford Bridge on Saturday. The Potters fell at home to Crystal Palace in their last outing and have nothing to play for at this stage of the season. The Blues were fast out of the blocks against Hull, and if they can do so again, they’ll win easily. I’m backing them on the halftime-fulltime double at 15/20.

Sunday
Burnley 5/2 | Draw 24/10 | Tottenham 21/20
Burnley are still in with a chance of staving off relegation, but they’ll need to start picking up results, starting with Sunday’s meeting with Spurs. It will be the fourth meeting between these sides this season after Spurs needed two legs to get past the Clarets in the FA Cup. Sean Dyche’s side have shown themselves capable of the odd upset against the Manchester-based clubs this season, and could well be in with a chance of another here. I’m going bold here, and tipping a 1-1 draw at 11/2.

Sunderland 29/20 | Draw 21/10 | Newcastle 19/10
Sunderland host Newcastle in the final match of the weekend. There will be blood. These two don’t like each other. Their fans don’t like each other, and Newcastle would love nothing more than to put another nail into Sunderland’s Premier League coffin. Games of this nature normally descend into violence because the football is not very good. This will be no different. Sunderland have scored just once in seven matches, while Newcastle just twice in the last five. Get on Both Teams to Score (No) at 17/20 and move along. No point in wasting your time watching.

Monday
Crystal Palace 38/10 | Draw 28/10 | Man City 13/20
Alan Pardew has proven a perfect match for Crystal Palace. A former player, he has been received well by the fans and led the Eagles to eight victories in his 13 matches in charge. Having taken over with the side in the relegation zone, the win over Stoke lifted them to 11th – 11 points clear of the drop zone. It’s been a great turnaround. On Monday they’ll play host to Man City, who know that nothing short of a win will do. City have been off-colour in recent weeks and could well see their title ambitions derailed here. Palace look good value at 38/10. I’ll have myself a bit of that, thank you very much.

It’s been a while since I’ve thrown together a multiple for you fine folks, so I thought I’d cobble something together. Try a bit of Arsenal/Lazio/Valencia at 11/2. Otherwise enjoy the footy. I know I sure will. Sala Kahle.


Written by Commodore Vegas
Follow him on Twitter here!

EPL Picks
Arsenal WIN 8/10
Southampton WIN 7/4
Leicester UNDER 2.5 GOALS 19/20
Man United WIN 3/10
Swansea WIN 17/20
West Brom WIN+BTTS 3/1
Chelsea HT-FT DOUBLE 15/20
Burnley CORRECT SCORE (1-1) 11/2
Sunderland BTTS (NO) 17/20
Crystal Palace WIN 38/10