Commodore's EPL Picks



Where do we go from here? If you’ll forgive me the Guns ‘n Roses reference. I’m a bit short on faith at the moment. Now I’m no man of god – football is my religion, and goals the altar unto which I pray. Or should it be prey? Too many questions, so few answers. Liverpool are sliding down the table like a lubed up stripper, leaving me with just another question. Where’d the money go? Brendan Rodgers was handed the usual war chest after the departure of Luis Suarez, the contents of which have been scattered on Southampton wantaways and mediocre European imports. Where is £20 million man Lazar Markovic? Is Daniel Sturridge made of glass? Just what the hell is going on over on Anfield Road? I couldn’t bring myself to go against the Reds with the score at 1-1 on Sunday. Palace were trading at 45/10 and there was only ever going to be one winner. And it sure as hell wasn’t going to be Liverpool.

West Brom  34/10 draw 27/10 Arsenal 8/10
We start elsewhere this weekend, at the Hawthorns to be exact. Arsenal will arrive in desperate need of points, and goals. After somehow contriving to lose a match they dominated against Man Utd, Arsene Wenger needs a result, and fast. The Baggies were undone by two early goals and a red card against Chelsea, although they were never likely to get anything off the champions elect. West Brom have caused Arsenal problems in the past, however, last year’s draw is their best result in recent seasons. The Gunners desperately need a win, and should comply with one here. However, the better bet seems Both Teams to Score at 7/10.

Burnley 11/10 draw 23/10 Aston Villa 5/2
Burnley really went and screwed the pooch by getting a result at the Britannia. After 10 matches without a win, they’ve now gone back-to-back to lift themselves off the foot of the table. Their form has coincided with the return of Danny Ings, last season’s Championship Player of the Year. It’s Aston Villa for them this weekend, a side that has also struggled for goals this season. Southampton’s keeper Fraser Forster generously gifted them one during Monday night’s draw, but Sean Dyche’s side might not be so generous on Saturday. Villa look lightweight up front, and I expect a confident Burnley side to claim another result here at 11/10.

Liverpool 13/20 draw 29/10 Stoke City 4/1
Liverpool host Stoke on Saturday as the pressure continues to mount on Brendan Rodgers and his faltering side. There were very little positives to take from the defeat to Crystal Palace, as they turned in another lethargic performance strewn with errors. Having played in the Champions League this week, the chances of a reinvigorated side are slim. Stoke somehow managed to lose to Burnley despite having 25 attempts at goal – with goalkeeper Asmir Begovic even getting in on the act. Where does all this leave us from a betting perspective? Well, only a raving lunatic would back the Reds at present, so the Stoke or draw double chance is where your money should go, at 21/20.

Man United 3/10 draw 9/2 Hull City 8/1
In stark contrast to Stoke, Manchester United managed to grab victory with just one shot on target. I half expected Louis van Gaal to pull off a mask to unveil that he was indeed Jose Mourinho, snuck into the Emirates in a laundry basket and back to shame Arsene Wenger in front of his disciples. It was the ultimate swankering. Hopefully, they'll show more attacking intent against Hull this weekend, what with their £150-odd million worth of attacking talent on display. As for the Tigers, well they had Gaston Ramirez to blame for missing out on a perfectly good opportunity to beat Spurs. Man Utd have a stellar record in this fixture, even when David Moyes was in charge, and are tipped to pick up another home win. One for the multiples.

QPR 13/10 draw 23/10 Leicester 21/10
Leicester did as I had predicted and failed to score against Sunderland – a side that had shipped eight against Southampton. That result made it no goal in over 450 minutes of Premier League action for the Foxes. Riveting stuff. A trip to Loftus Road awaits for them this weekend, where they'll come up against fellow relegation contenders QPR. Harry Redknapp's side were unfortunate not to get a point out of their visit to Newcastle and have shown a strong defensive resolve in recent weeks. This can be considered an early season six-pointer, and I fully expect QPR to pick up a vital win to lift them off the foot of the table. It's on offer at a generous 13/10.



Swansea City 15/20 draw 26/10 Crystal Palace 37/10
Swansea were unable to hang onto their early lead against Man City as they went down to a rampaging Yaya Toure. Still, a 2-1 loss away to the champions is hardly a poor result, although I just missed out on the 4/1 I got for the draw. For them this weekend it's Liverpool's conquerors Crystal Palace. Neil Warnock's side had gone five matches without a win before the visit from the Reds, where they were made to look like Champions League contenders. However, normality should be resumed this weekend against the Swans, who have won four of their six home matches this season. Another home win is on the cards here at 15/20.

West Ham 21/20 draw 24/10 Newcastle 26/10
West Ham manager Sam Allardyce chose to rest some of his form players for the trip to Everton, instead opting to field Carlton Cole and Andy Carroll in attack. It was a strange move, and one that resulted in defeat. He should welcome back the likes of Stuart Downing, Enner Valencia and Diafra Sakho for the visit of Newcastle, one of his former employers. The Magpies moved up to fifth on the log with their victory over QPR, their fifth in as many matches. Their turnaround has been built on a rock solid defence, that has conceded just once during the run. There's not much to choose between these two, so I'm opting for a draw, available at 24/10.

Sunderland 72/10 draw 7/2 Chelsea 4/10
Chelsea were good, without being great against West Brom. They managed a comfortable 2-0 victory without so much as changing gears. They're far and away the best side in the league at present. It's actually a bit of a bore. They'll travel to the Stadium of Light this weekend to face a Sunderland side that has struggled for victories this season. They've drawn seven of their 12 matches, including a dour stalemate at Leicester last time out. The corresponding fixture last season served up a thriller, which Chelsea won 4-3 thanks to a brace from Eden Hazard. I don't expect a repeat, with a more routine away win likely. Another for the multiples at 4/10.

Southampton 24/10 draw 24/10 Man City 11/10
Southampton manager Ronald Koeman has spoken of a possible push for Champions League qualification after an impressive start to the season. His theory will be tested to the fullest in the coming weeks as the Saints come up against Man City, Arsenal and Man Utd in the space of nine days. They remain in second place on the log, two points clear of their visitors this weekend. City will come into this one on the back of a tough midweek assignment against Bayern Munich. Southampton have a decent record at home against the Champions, having picked up four points from their last two meetings. With form like that the home Draw No Bet (DNB) at 14/10 looks a decent bet.

Tottenham 5/4 draw 24/10 Everton 21/10
I maintain that Spurs were lucky to come away with a win against Hull, where they were helped in large part by the red card to Gaston Ramirez. Against 11-men, this side are no good, and Everton will show that this weekend. The Toffees are coming right and have now gone seven matches unbeaten since their defeat against Manchester United. That defeat was their only on the road this season, where they've proven difficult to break down. Spurs have been made favourites for this one, but that is on reputation rather than form. They were booed off after losing to Stoke at White Hart Lane and have already lost four at home this season. Don't mess about with the DNB, just lump it on the Toffees at 21/10 and thank me later.

Elsewhere I fancy wins for Roma, Lyon and Lazio which would give you solid odds of 10/1. Perhaps a small wager is in order. For those that haven't already checked it out, I suggest you have a look at Hollywood's new-and-improved live-betting offers. That's where the real money can be made. I've taken to backing favourites on the DNB at HT and I'm making a killing. Low risk, high reward. Like shooting fish in a barrel – if you know how to handle a gun. That will be all, folks. Sala Kahle.


Written by Commodore Vegas
Follow him on Twitter here!

Commodore’s Picks
West Brom BTTS 7/10
Burnley WIN 11/10
Stoke WIN/DRAW 21/20
Man United WIN 3/10
QPR WIN 13/10
Swansea WIN 15/20
West Ham DRAW 24/10
Chelsea WIN 4/10
Southampton DRAW NO BET 14/10
Everton WIN 21/10