Commodore's EPL Picks




Okay, folks, let's keep the good times rolling. While it wasn't a perfect weekend, a 70% strike rate was enough to turn a tidy profit. I'm feeling good, strong, ready for whatever the Premier League conjures up this weekend. That certainly wasn't the case on Sunday. I sat, on the verge of a nervous breakdown, as Liverpool tried their best to lose against QPR. What they didn't bank on, is QPR's unrivalled ability to lose football matches. Elsewhere, there were plenty of goals. Southampton put eight on Gus Poyet's Black Kittens, while Louis van Gaal's Manchester United continued to believe that football games can be won solely on attacking prowess. If they take that approach to the match against log-leaders Chelsea at the weekend, they'll receive a right thumping. 

West Ham 9/2 draw 32/10 Man City 11/20
We start, as we did last weekend, with the defending champions. Against Spurs last week Sergio Aguero showed that, when fit, he's up there with the best in the world. Despite missing a penalty, the diminutive Argentinian still managed four goals. For City this weekend, it's Big Sam's in-form West Ham. The Hammers victory over Burnley at the weekend lifted them into fourth place, a position that is a true representation of their football at present. They'll cause problems here, have no doubt. I'm going Both Teams to Score or over 2.5 goals. 

Liverpool 4/10 draw 36/10 Hull City 62/10
Liverpool were diabolical against QPR. Their midfield was spineless, their attack lethargic and their defence characteristically poor. They deserved nothing out of that game. Hull – well they were brilliant against Arsenal. They deserved more than they got. Mo Diame showed once again that he should be patrolling a top four midfield and I fear Liverpool won't be able to deal with his power here. They weren't able to deal with a 33-year old Bobby Zamora for chrissakes. They'll lift themselves for the tie against Real Madrid, but it'll leave them low for Saturday's match. Lump it on the Hull DNB at 38/10.

Southampton 6/10 draw 28/10 Stoke City 47/10
I thought Southampton had started their fade into mid-table mediocrity. How wrong I was. Their response was a savage beating of Sunderland. Dusan Tadic showed what all the hype was about, while Graziano Pelle's burgeoning reputation continues to grow. And to think, people said they couldn't replace Adam Lallana and Rickie Lambert. They'll face Stoke at St Mary's this weekend, in a match that has served up four draws in the last four encounters. Such results have me contemplating the short price on offer for a home win (6/10). It's still worth a punt, but I'd be wary about loading up on it.

Sunderland 41/10 draw 27/10 Arsenal 7/10
Onto Sunderland. Gus Poyet called it 'the most embarrassing moment he's experienced in football'. The same must be said for Santiago Vergini, who scored a stunning own goal against the hapless Vito Mannone to get things going. It doesn't get any easier, with Arsenal up for the beleaguered Black Cats. Arsene Wenger's side put seven past them in two meetings last season and will be looking to return to winning ways after three below-par showings. Sunderland should be quite a bit better on Saturday (they can't be any worse), but I still fancy the Gunners to have too much firepower for them. A handy price at 7/10.

West Brom 17/20 draw 5/2 Crystal Palace 33/10
There's a lot to like about West Brom. Saido Berahino's mobile approach to forward play. Stephane Sessegnon's pace and power behind the frontman. Chris Brunt's left foot. They showed it all against Manchester United on Monday, and were unlucky not to come away with the three points. They welcome Crystal Palace to the Hawthorns on Saturday – a side that I can't quite put my finger on. They could well have snatched a point against Chelsea, but have also failed to beat Newcastle and Burnley. I'm expecting both teams to have a right old go at this one, with a scoring draw tipped. Fancy a crazy bet? You could do worse than the 2-2 correct score at 16/1.

Swansea 19/20 draw 5/2 Leicester City 29/10
Swansea were undone at Stoke by a dodgy pen but, in truth, they should've been well clear by that point. Swans manager Garry Monk will likely face disciplinary measures after saying they were 'cheated' by referee Michael Oliver. It seemed a rash move for someone with the surname Monk, but that is beside the point. The point is – that decision cost me money and for that, I will never forgive Oliver. Moving past that, though, the Swans should bounce back with a victory over Leicester at home. The Foxes are without a win in three and their early season fireworks seem to have been short-lived. Get on the Swans at 9/10 – this time they'll make it worth your while.

Burnley 37/10 draw 5/2 Everton 8/10
Everton are another side that have played games with my heart this season. After making some money on their results against Liverpool and United, they hurt me badly against Villa at the weekend. Who knew they had a performance like that in them? Certainly not me. They've plodded through the season so far and still find themselves in 13th place despite that solid win. They won't be relishing the trip to Moore Park on Sunday, especially after a Thursday night appearance in France. Burnley are only off the foot of the table on goal difference, but they need the points. I'm backing the home team to come good in front of their fans. You can get Burnley on the DNB at 2/1, or outright at 37/10.

Tottenham 7/10 draw 28/10 Newcastle 36/10
Spurs were my preseason contenders for Champions League football. They won't even be in the Europa League next season on current form. Their 4-1 defeat to City was all the more alarming because Manuel Pellegrini's side didn't even have to play well to beat them comfortably. They were shambolic at the back, with Younes Kaboul particularly ineffective. They'll face Newcastle this weekend, who picked up their first win of the season at the weekend. It wasn't pretty, but a win is a win, and Alan Pardew will take it to the bank. This one won't be a classic, I'll tell you that much. If I was a betting man – which I am – I'd back the draw at 28/10.

Man United 18/10 draw 23/10 Chelsea 15/10
The weekend closes out with a match that, in year's gone by, might've been considered a title-decider. Despite Louis van Gaal's delusions, Manchester United are not title contenders. Not with a defence like that I'm afraid. Liverpool supporters couldn't see it last season and now it's the Manc's turn to be blinded by fanciful football at the other end. Chelsea are favourites at the Theatre of Dreams. That says it all. They're the best in the league at the moment, and with Diego Costa likely to return for this fixture, there will be only one outcome. Back the Blues to triumph. For the brave among you, take Chelsea to win by three or more at 11/1.

QPR 27/20 draw 22/10 Aston Villa 21/10
Villa were disappointing against Everton. Beaten in all areas of the pitch, it was their worst performance of the season. They'll get an opportunity to set things straight when they travel to Loftus Road on Monday to face QPR. If Harry Redknapp's team were playing in the Serie A, they'd be under investigation for match-fixing at present. They missed two gilt edged chances against the Reds, before putting two in the back of their own net in a 3-2 loss. Villa would've taken note, and will look to utilise their pace on the counter-attack to exploit QPR's lack thereof. Villa are good on the road and are tipped at a lengthy 21/10.

It's been a decent couple of week's, but with December lurking I need to shore up the coffers. There'll be wins for Swansea, Chelsea and Arsenal this weekend – put them in a multiple at 13/2. As for the rest, well I'll leave that up to you. Sala Kahle.

Written by Commodore Vegas
Follow him on Twitter here!

Commodore’s Picks
West Ham BTTS 13/20
Hull City DRAW NO BET 38/10
Southampton WIN 6/10
Arsenal WIN 7/10 
West Brom DRAW 5/2
Swansea WIN 19/20
Burnley DRAW NO BET 37/10
Tottenham DRAW 28/10
Chelsea WIN 15/10
Aston Villa WIN 21/10