Commodore's EPL Picks

Last weekend was my most successful yet, with 80 percent of my bets arriving. It don’t get much better than that. Had Arsenal not slipped up at home to a very average Spurs side, it might’ve been one for the record books. As things stand, the league is starting to sort itself out. Apart from the surprise inclusion of Southampton, the top four has a familiar look about it. Liverpool have struggled post-Suarez while Newcastle are falling apart at the seams. European football is back this week, and ready to throw another spanner in the works, so beware. Spurs and Everton have struggled following Europa League exploits already this season, and they’ll do so again on Sunday.

Hull City 9/10 draw 23/10 Crystal Palace 29/10
We start further down the table at the KC Stadium, where Hull will host Crystal Palace – a side that did the double over them last season. The Tigers sit just two points clear of the relegation zone, but they’re better than that. They troubled the champions for much of their match at the weekend and Abel Hernandez looks a quality signing in a side that is stocked full of game-breakers. Palace picked up a good win against Leicester, but something doesn’t sit right with me about this side. I’m going with my gut and backing the Tigers to triumph at 9/10.

Leicester City 15/20 draw 5/2 Burnley 7/2
Six matches, one goal scored. Burnley may have Sam Vokes and Danny Ings on the sidelines, but that is relegation form. On Saturday they travel to fellow promoted club, Leicester, who have fared considerably better than the Clarets. Nigel Pearson’s side put five past Manchester United in their last home game and, despite a loss against Palace, they will be confident heading into this one. They’re yet to lose at home this season and I don’t expect them to start here. Back the Foxes at 15/20.

Liverpool 7/20 draw 38/10 West Brom 64/10
Liverpool have problems. Daniel Sturridge will return this weekend, but even he won’t be able to right the wrongs with last season’s runner-ups. Raheem Sterling has been carrying the load, with new signings Adam Lallana and Lazar Markovic providing a distinct lack of movement in the final third. Lallana was better against Everton, but for £20 million, he should be. The Baggies come to Anfield this weekend, having bagged their first victory of the season against Burnley. They went down 4-1 in the corresponding fixture last season but, given the Reds recent struggles, this should be a lot tighter. It’s becoming a staple with Liverpool – back both teams to score at 8/10.

Sunderland 14/10 draw 21/10 Stoke City 19/10
Another sure bet: Sunderland to draw. They’ve now drawn five of their first six matches, that has to be some sort of record. They’ll host Stoke this weekend, who saw off their bitter rivals on a wet and windy Monday night in the Potteries. Peter Crouch is enjoying something of a renaissance, with two goals in his last two games. Stoke looked impressive on the break against the Magpies, and have some decent players on the books. Enough to beat Sunderland? Nah, I’m going with the draw once again, at 21/10.

Swansea 8/10 draw 5/2 Newcastle 31/10
Alan Pardew’s time is running out. With an international window to follow this weekend’s matches, he needs a win at Swansea if he’s to save his job. Newcastle weren’t bad at Stoke, but they lacked the composure that comes with experience in this league. Remy Cabella and Emmanuel Riviere haven’t quite cut the mustard yet. As for the Swans, they’re without a win in three league matches, but Gary Monk won’t be getting too disheartened. Wilfried Bony returns for this one having missed the draw at the Stadium of Light through suspension. I fancy him to grab a goal in a home victory, available at 8/10.

Aston Villa 57/10 draw 28/10 Man City 5/10
Aston Villa disappointed at Stamford Bridge. After falling behind early they had to chase the game a bit and were duly punished by a better team. Against Man City this weekend, they can’t afford another lacklustre start. Playing at home has never suited this Villa side, where they’re expected to make the play rather than sit back and look to hit teams on the break. If they choose to play against City, they’ll get hammered. Much will depend on how Paul Lambert sets his team up, but for value the Draw No Bet on Villa seems about as good as it gets at 34/10, especially after they triumphed in the corresponding fixture last season.

Man United 7/10 draw 26/10 Everton 37/10
Manchester United were a Kevin Nolan nose away from dropping more points at home against West Ham. Wayne Rooney scored then showed the petulance that makes him a poor choice of captain, and will miss the next three matches, starting with the visit from his old club Everton. The Toffees were lucky to get anything out of the Merseyside derby, and have looked flat all season. A trip to Russia for a Europa League tie is not going to help their cause at Old Trafford this weekend. United haven’t been good, but they’ll have enough to see off the travel-worn Toffees at 7/10.

Chelsea 13/20 draw 26/10 Arsenal 43/10
Chelsea absolutely smashed Arsenal at Stamford Bridge last season. It ended 6-0, but in truth it may have been double figures, such were Arsenal’s inadequacies. Arsene Wenger’s team have remained unbeaten up until now, but I can’t see it staying that way for much longer. Diego Costa is likely to play against Sporting midweek, so he may not be fit enough to start this one as he continues to struggle with his hamstring. The Blues should still have too much for their cross-town rivals though, and I’ll even go so far as to predict a Cesc Fabregas goal. The narrative always takes over when it comes to the big matches. Fabregas anytime goalscorer and Chelsea to win, get on it.

Tottenham 11/10 draw 23/10 Southampton 24/10
While those two slug it out in South-West London, Mauricio Pochettino will be welcoming some familiar faces to North London, when Southampton face Tottenham. The Argentinian has struggled to make his mark at Spurs, with the personnel at his disposal not conducive to his high-pressing game. The Saints have barely missed him and currently sit second on the log, the new Pele mach II displaying moments of genius on the Premier League stage. Southampton will start their slide down the table soon enough, but that time is not now. I’m backing Koeman and co to get the victory here at 24/10.

West Ham 17/20 draw 24/10 QPR 3/1
West Ham are a decent side. It pains me to say so, as it goes against everything I thought I knew about football, but they’re a decent side. Perhaps even a good one. Big Sam has reinvented himself as a European aristocrat with a penchant for champagne football. Sure he still has Kevin Nolan flapping his arms about wildly (some things will never change), but the current Hammers team like to get the ball on the ground and pass it around. They’ve got pace, and movement, and even take short free kicks. It’s all very perplexing. They’ll face QPR this weekend in yet another London derby. After a buildup like that, there can be only one bet. Back Big Sam’s free-flowing Hammers at 17/20. There’ll be some bubbles blown on Sunday eve, one way or the other.

And that will be that. The Premier League will take a sabbatical following this weekend’s action, but fear not, there’s money to be made in international football. And I shall find a way to do just that. Until then, happy punting. Sala Kahle.

Written by Commodore Vegas
Follow him on Twitter here!

Commodore’s Weekend Picks
Hull City WIN 9/10
Leicester WIN 15/20
Liverpool BTTS 8/10
Sunderland DRAW 21/10
Swansea WIN 8/10
Aston Villa DRAW NO BET 34/10
Man United WIN 7/10
Chelsea WIN 13/20
Southampton WIN 24/10
West Ham WIN 17/20