Commodore's EPL Picks

It was a good weekend for yours truly, with my hunch on Man Utd paying off handsomely. That I’m making money off the suffering of Red Devil’s fans makes the taste of victory even sweeter. Panic has well and truly set in at Old Trafford. £60 million on a player that doesn’t seem to fit into Van Gaal’s system - it’s all a bit ominous for me. We may be only two weeks into the season, but with Man City and Chelsea sat near the top of the league table, this season already has an air of familiarity about it. Enough needless banter though, let us get into the nitty gritty of making some money.

Burnley 49/10 draw 29/10 Man United 11/20
We start at Turf Moor, where the mighty Manchester United arrive with their array of new stars. They never looked comfortable against Sunderland, with the new 3-5-2 system resembling something of a 5-3-2, with Ashley Young playing left-back. I have no Uefa coaching badges, but even I know that you’re in for a world of hurt if that’s how you choose to play. Burnley were better against Swansea, but as I’ve said before, their fate will be decided at home. United are in for a tough afternoon here. Back the home side at 49/10 and get off to a flyer. The Burnley/Draw double chance has some value for the conservatives among you.

Man City 1/6 draw 57/10 Stoke City 12/1
Man City were simply sublime on Monday night. To have the resources to bring Sergio Aguero off the bench says it all. Screw financial fair play, they were an absolute joy to watch, even though they were tearing my beloved Liverpool to shreds. Jovetic has arrived, a season late, while Fernando looks a great buy in the middle of the park. Stoke come to town this weekend and after failing to get past 10-man Hull, they have very little chance of troubling the Champions here. Surprisingly enough, there was only one goal in the two meetings between these two last season. In a quest for value, I’m going under 2.5 goals at 14/10.

Newcastle 7/10 draw 5/2 Crystal Palace 38/10
Newcastle were wasteful at best against Villa, guilty of spurning an array of glorious chances. Two matches, no goals. It seems Newcastle haven’t changed much themselves, despite replacing their French striker with, you guessed it, a French striker. Crystal Palace have started this season much the way they did the last, terribly. A 3-1 home loss against West Ham and no manager on the horizon, things are getting desperate in South London. The Magpies managed the double over these particular opponents last season and should be capable of picking up their first win of the season here. Back Newcastle at 7/10. 

QPR 14/10 draw 21/10 Sunderland 19/10
QPR, much like they did a couple seasons back, have spent big in a bid to stay in the Premier League. Unfortunately for them and their fans, they haven’t spent wisely. Rio Ferdinand has continued his decline alongside Richard Dunne and Steven Caulker in perhaps the slowest central defender combination in Premier League history. Sunderland were good value for their draw against Man Utd and despite being a striker short of being comfortable this season, they have enough to see off Harry Redknapp’s band of mercenaries here. Back them at 19/10. 

Swansea 8/10 draw 5/2 West Brom 31/10
Swansea find themselves in esteemed company, sitting in the Champions League places. While they are unlikely to be there in a couple week’s time, Gary Monk has made an encouraging start to his full-time reign in Wales. It’s West Brom for them this weekend in what should be an evenly contested affair. The Baggies managed a commendable draw at St Mary’s last weekend, even if it was desperately short of goal-mouth action. Gylfi Sigurdsson’s arrival has offset the loss of Jonathan de Guzman, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he were to pop up with the winner in a tight game here. You can get the Swans at 8/10, good for a multiple or two.

West Ham 15/10 draw 9/4 Southampton 17/10
West Ham surprised me last weekend. After a terrible performance against Spurs in their opener, they turned on the style at Selhurst Park, with new-boy Mauro Z├írate getting on the scoresheet. Their opponents this weekend, Southampton, bears the resemblance of a side whose had their soul ripped from them. The rebuilding has begun, but they are not the same team as they were last season, and they won’t be again. The Hammers should have enough about them to pick up a win here. 15/10 available on the home win, with the 2-1 scoreline on offer at 92/10.

Everton 26/10 draw 23/10 Chelsea 1/1
Saturday’s final match could well be the game of the weekend. Jose Mourinho takes his purring Chelsea side to Merseyside to face the Toffees, and Chelsea outcast Romelu Lukaku. The ‘Special One’ had some less than flattering things to say about the Belgian’s character following his departure and Lukaku will be out to prove a point at Goodison. The Toffees have a solid record against their illustrious opponents, winning two of their last three at home. A Steven Naismith header gave them all three points early last season, although they’ll struggle to repeat that feat on Saturday. I’m edging toward a draw, which can be found at 23/10.

Aston Villa 11/10 draw 21/10 Hull City 24/10
Sunday comes with three more matches, starting with Hull’s visit to Villa Park. The Villains were disappointing once again on their home patch, playing to a dour 0-0 draw with Newcastle last time out. For Hull, they would’ve been happy to make off with a point against Stoke having played for 77 minutes with 10 men. These are matches that Villa really should be winning, but my gut is telling me to be wary of this side. Goals are a problem for both these team’s so I suggest looking at the under’s markets. If you’re looking for a result, you could do worse than backing another draw at 21/10.

Tottenham 31/20 draw 23/10 Liverpool 16/10
Sunday’s big match sees Liverpool travel to London to face Spurs, as Mauricio Pochettino comes up against many of his former players. Mario Balotelli is in line to make his Liverpool debut against a side that he was sent off against while at Man City. The mercurial Italian has the ability to transform Liverpool’s fortunes, for better or worse. Spurs looked a good team against QPR, but Sunday’s match will provide a good marker for where they are at present. Liverpool are struggling to cope without Suarez at the moment. Spurs look more settled, making the home win at 15/10 a decent bet.

Leicester 34/10 draw 26/10 Arsenal 15/20 
Arsenal and Leicester close out the weekend at the King Power Stadium. The Gunners were extremely lucky to have come away with a point against Everton, while Leicester showed themselves no pushovers against Chelsea. If David Nugent hadn’t spurned a clear-cut chance at 0-0, things might’ve played out very differently. Alexis Sanchez started up front against the Toffees with limited success and, with Olivier Giroud likely ruled out for a couple months with a broken ankle, Arsenal seem short on options up front. The betting is tighter than I was expecting, with the Foxes quite short at 34/10. I’m going for another draw here at 26/10.

Team’s are still finding their best combinations and as such, there’s not much form to go on at the moment. Last weekend represented a good return on investments, with the draw looking like a value bet given the tightness of matches so far. It’s early days yet, but there are only really two contenders for the title. The rest look destined to scrap it out for Champions League places. Well that’s how I see it at least. Sala Kahle.

Written by Commodore Vegas
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Commodore’s Weekend Picks
Burnley WIN 49/10
Man City UNDER 2.5 GOALS 14/10
Newcastle WIN 7/10
Sunderland WIN 19/10
Swansea WIN 8/10
West Ham WIN 15/10
Everton DRAW 23/10
Aston Villa DRAW 21/10
Tottenham WIN 31/20
Leicester DRAW 26/10